Current → Target (lvl 200)
22 ★
Star Force Calculator
Exact Solver: Use Markov Chain model to calculate success rate and cost given finite spares, as well as cost and boom expectations under infinite spares.
Simulations: Use Monte Carlo Simulations to estimate the same properties.
SoS Strategy: Suggest best strategy in foddering SoS based on expected success rate and boom using the Exact Solver.
Reference: View the rule book, rate table, and external validation benchmark used by the calculator.
Input Setup
Adjust the state and toggles. All summaries and tables update immediately.
Safeguard
Exact Solver
Markov Chain Results
These cards and lookup tables come from the exact solver, not simulation.
Finite-spare outputs stop when the run succeeds or all spares are boomed.
Expected totals outputs continue until the target is reached.
Success Rate with 3 spares
12.1001%
Cost until out of 3 spares
35.4 B
Expected Total Cost
35.4B
Expected Destructions
9
Success Rate with Finite Spares
Exact lookup table. Rows are spare counts, columns are target stars.
Cost with Finite Spares
Exact lookup table. Rows are spare counts, columns are expected cost under the same finite-spare stopping rule.
Cost and Boom with Infinite Spares
Exact table. Each row is a target star, with eventual-success expected cost and expected destructions from the current star.
Simulations
Monte Carlo Results
These plots are simulated, not exact.
Hover any vertical bin band to see the x-axis range and cumulative accepted percentage.
Progress
0%
Target Reached Within Current Spares
Accepted runs are only the trials that hit the target without exceeding the selected spare count.
Average Cost
-
Median Cost
-
Average Booms
-
Median Booms
-
Success Rate
-
Cost Histogram
Waiting for inputs.
Boom Histogram
Waiting for inputs.
Target Reached With Infinite Spares
Accepted runs are the trials that eventually reach the target under the continuing trace-restore process.
Average Cost
-
Median Cost
-
Average Booms
-
Median Booms
-
Cost Histogram
Waiting for inputs.
Boom Histogram
Waiting for inputs.
Application
SoS Strategy
Exact strategy calculator for the next best action to reach Source of Suffering from the current remaining Dom, Sup, SoS, and trace stocks.
TL;DR - 23* Target
Small stocks: transfer early at 23*. Big stocks: transfer late at 25-24-23.
TL;DR - 24*+ Target
Usually transfer late and use stocks up to 26* before moving down the chain.
- Rank strategies by success chance first and expected meso second.
- Use the listed `Sup Transfer` star only for non-final SoS pieces. The final reserved SoS always waits for `target + 1` and is transfer-only.
- Fall back by tier as stocks are exhausted: `Dom -> 19* Sup traces + clean Sup -> 19* SoS traces + non-final SoS`.
- The `19* Sup Trace Stock` and `19* SoS Trace Stock` inputs seed already-saved traces at the start. New 19★ booms add to those pools when the matching toggle is enabled.
- The cards below show the next best action from the current state. Re-enter stocks after each Sup boom and each SoS boom.
Start
Dom
Dom Exhausted
19* Sup + Sup
Sup Exhausted
19* SoS + Non-final SoS
Final
Transfer-only SoS
Reminder
Re-enter stocks after each boom
Next Dom Transfer
-
Next Sup Transfer
-
Success Chance
-
Cost
-
Dom/Sup/SoS Booms
-
Supporting Strategies
These ranked rows support the next-action recommendation above. `Dom Transfer` is the Dominator star before transfer to Superior. `Sup Transfer` is the Superior star used for transfers into non-final SoS pieces; the reserved final SoS always waits for `target + 1`.
| Rank | Dom Transfer | Sup Transfer | Success | Cost | Dom Booms | Sup Booms | SoS Booms |
|---|
Rule Book
Rules currently used by this Star Force calculator.
Core Mechanics
State Model
State is the current star only.
Failure
Failure always keeps the current star.
Destruction
On destruction, the item becomes a trace and restores by the restore-to column in the reference table.
Safeguard
Safeguard is controlled separately for 15★, 16★, and 17★. Each enabled star converts destruction into failure at that exact starting star. The `All On` button toggles all three together.
Star Catch
The Star Catch toggle multiplies success chance by 1.05 and rescales fail and destroy proportionally.
30% Off Cost
The 30% Off Cost toggle multiplies base attempt cost by 0.7 and does not reduce safeguard extra cost.
30% Off Destruction
The 30% Off Destruction toggle multiplies destruction chance by 0.7 for current stars 0★ to 21★ and moves the removed mass into failure.
MVP Discount
The MVP dropdown applies a base-cost-only discount on current stars 0★ to 16★: No MVP 0%, MVP Silver 3%, MVP Gold 5%, and MVP Diamond+ 10%.
Input Bounds
Current star is clamped to 0 to 29, target star to 1 to 30, target is forced to be at least current plus 1, spares are clamped to 0 to 128, and item level is selected from 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 200, and 250.
Exact Solver
Success Rate
Success rate with X spares means reaching the target using at most X destructions. A row of 0 means no destruction is allowed.
Cost Given Spares
Cost until out of X spares means expected meso spent until the target is reached, or until the next destruction occurs after X destructions have already been used.
Expected Totals
Expected total cost and expected destructions use the continuing trace-restore process and effectively assume infinite spares.
Lookup Tables
Lookup rows run from 0 through the selected spare count plus 2, capped at 128. Lookup columns run from current star plus 1 through target star plus 1, capped at 30.
Simulation
Plot Method
All four histograms are estimated with Monte Carlo simulations using the selected trial count.
Accepted Cases
Plot bars and y-axis values are percentages of accepted runs only, not percentages of all simulated trials.
Plot Cases
The upper row conditions on reaching the target within the selected spare count. The lower row conditions on eventual success with infinite spares.
Plot Binning
Cost plots and the infinite-spare boom plot use 10 bins with equal spacing in log scale. The finite-spare boom plot uses integer bins.
Plot Hover
Hovering a plot bin shows the left bound, right bound, and cumulative accepted percentage. The finite-spare boom plot shows the exact boom bin and cumulative accepted percentage.
SoS Strategy
Transfer
An item can transfer into a target item that is 10 levels higher, with the transferred item losing 1 star. In this panel, the transfer path is Dominator Pendant to Superior Pendant to Source of Suffering.
SoS Stocks
Stock means the fixed total number of pieces available for that item type. Dominator starts, Dominator-to-Superior transfers, and Superior trace-restores each consume one stock of the resulting clean item. For SoS specifically, one piece is reserved as the final target item, so the number of non-final SoS pieces that can be tapped is stock minus 1.
Constraints
Strategies are ranked by success chance first and expected meso second. The last SoS piece is never tapped and can only be reached by transfer from a Superior that has reached target plus 1 star. The listed Superior transfer star applies only to non-final SoS pieces. Non-final SoS pieces may be tapped directly to the target and count as success.
Sup 19* Trace Restore
When enabled, each Superior boom that restores to 19★ adds one saved 19★ trace to the run. Restores to 12★, 15★, and 17★ are discarded. If a rebuild later needs Dominator stock and none remains, the solver may spend one saved 19★ trace plus one Superior stock to resume from 19★. When disabled, any rebuild that needs Dominator stock fails once Dominator stock is exhausted.
SoS 19* Trace Restore
When enabled, each non-final SoS boom that restores to 19★ adds one saved 19★ SoS trace to the run. The solver may spend one saved 19★ SoS trace plus one non-final SoS stock to resume from 19★ only after both Dominator and Superior stock are exhausted. This restore path is only available while at least one non-final SoS stock remains, so the reserved final SoS is never consumed.
Formatting
Rounding
Summary and lookup success rates show 2 decimals. Summary and lookup costs round up to 1 decimal in B or T. Expected destructions round up to whole integers. Reference rates show 2 decimals, and reference attempt cost shows 1 decimal plus unit.
Reference Table
Current effective success, failure, destruction, trace restore, and attempt cost by current star and level under the selected toggles above.
Settings: Item Level 200 | Safeguard 15/16/17
Numerical reference: MapleStory Wiki.
| Star | Success | Fail | Destroy | Restore To | Attempt Cost |
|---|
External Validation
Default page inputs are listed below as the benchmark case for manual comparison against external Star Force solvers.
Benchmark Case
These are the current baseline defaults used by this page.
| Current Star | 22 | Target Star | 25 | Item Level | 200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Spares | 3 | Safeguard | On | Star Catch | On |
| 30% Off Cost | On | 30% Off Destruction | On | MVP | No MVP |